Facebook is doomed
I decided this morning that Facebook is doomed…seriously, throw it in the pile with your Ed-Hardy sunglasses (now available at Costco.) The reason…simple overload!
Do the math: I have 447 ‘friends’ which is not that many considering how I use FB and considering the fact that I am a pretty active networker in general.
I also go to bed late and wake up early and these are the times I usually ‘check-in’ with my various social networking channels. On average there are…
more than 200 ‘updates’ waiting for me.
Assuming I don’t check in throughout the day (some of us actually work) there are between 300 and 500 updates.
Are you kidding me?
‘Horoscopes, Mafia Wars, more event invites than I could ever attend, and don’t get me started on that G-DAMN FARMVILLE thing. I swear…as soon as someone writes an application to block that nonsense I will gladly pay! Someone fertilized your crops? You found a stray goat? Who gives a cow-patty?
Recently, I have switched to facebook Lite which cuts down a lot of the noise (friend notifications, event attendees, silly apps and such.) Ironically, when you strip away all the games – there is not much going on.
My point is that your ‘window’ holds 5-7 updates. There are 15 or so to a page when you scroll down. Assuming the average person has the patience to look through three pages (which is a lot if you ask me) and they have an average ‘check-in’ volume of 100 (half of mine) there is less than a 50% chance someone will even read my update. In reality, I suspect these numbers are over-ambitious and the real probability is closer too 10%.
Since I use social media primarily for business/promotion purposes, I have considered hiring someone to re-post for me every six minutes (thus improving my chances.) I am also pretty sure I could get Rent-A-Coder to whip something up for me.
But how long would that last? Pretty soon, everyone who wanted their message seen would do this and volume would go through the roof. It’s kind of like what happens at a party or in a restaurant…the volume keeps creeping up because everyone wants to be heard. Eventually, it’s so loud you can’t hear anything.
So what’s next? Wish I could say… actually I wouldn’t say because I would get to work on the solution and try to make a buck off of this problem. All I know is that this phenomena has played itself out many times…we call them fads and they all implode eventually,
I’d be really interested in hearing your thoughts on how facebook could re-invent itself. That is, of course , if you can tear yourself away from Mafia Wars!


